Bahrain and Iran

There have been Shiite protests in both Bahrain and Iran. The protests in Bahrain have been particularly concerning with some 25,000 marching today in the downtown area. In Iran the protests more severe yesterday:

Associated Press - 15 February, 2011

Clashes between Iranian police and tens of thousands of protesters wracked central Tehran on Monday as security forces beat and fired tear gas at opposition supporters hoping to evoke Egypt’s recent popular uprising.

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Deadlines and posturing

The West and Iran are posturing ahead of tomorrow's big demo. The US is saying it wants a UN sanctions resolution within weeks. Meanwhile:

Tomorrow (Thursday's) upcoming anniversary of the Iranian revolution will be a major test in the struggle between Ayatollah Khāmene’i and the opposition.

The government has issued a warning to the people not to come out onto the streets.

Mousavi has said it should be a "day of the public".

This is a face-off.

If there are major numbers then Khāmene’i is facing sustained opposition. A major demonstration on the anniversary of the revolution is almost insulting to Khāmene’i as it implies he has failed to carry forward the legacy of the Revolution.

If the numbers are small then the crack-down is working - people will give up and go underground and resort to secret meetings and sabotage.

The man to watch is Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini (the son of Ahmad Khomeini, who was the Grand Ayatollah's youngest son and always very close to his father). He is annoyed with Ahmadinejad and has an uncomfortable relationship with the conservatives. If he comes out vocally or visibly in support of the Greens it will be a further problem for Khāmene’i (Hassan Khomeini has already been having meetings with them).

On Al Jazeera English after today's executions

Potkin speaks on About today's obscene executions in Iran. To view click here

Iran's Crack Down

Unbelievable times in Iran. Can Ahmadinejad survive? There's a tipping point in these things and - given his unpopularity within the establishment itself - I would say NO. The man is doomed. But does that mean that the system is to be replaced? No. That I doubt.

Agence France-Presse - 29 December, 2009
Iranian security forces arrested more than a dozen dissidents Monday after at least eight people were killed in fierce clashes, opposition websites said, drawing international condemnation.Those detained included aides to reformist ex-president Mohammad Khatami and opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, veteran dissident Ebrahim Yazdi and award-winning rights campaigner Emadeddin Baghi, reports said.

Iran's Protests - Latest

This comes in from Farid:

Washington DC - December 7, 2009 (RPS Staff) - Sounds of "Murderer Khamenei, his power is illegitimate" are reverberating in the Vali-Asr Square in Tehran.
According to the Iranian opposition, a procession of thousands of brave Tehranis, many of them young, marched to the Vali-Asr Square to the Students' junction and are shouting: "Murderer Khamenei, his power is illegitimate," "Death to Khamenei" and "Death to the dictator".
Security forces charged the demonstrators with their batons injuring many. Protests continue to grow in various parts of the capital. On Enghelab Square, the crowd shouted "Free political prisoners". Again, security forces attacked the protesters and gunfire rang out. Clashes are on-going at this time with the repressive regime forces. people attempted to close shops, but shopkeepers refused to leave their store and remain outside.
University of Tehran, security forces were checking identification and cell phones of young people. Some had their cell phones confiscated. Payphones near the university were covered with black plastic and are prohibited from use. Any communication in and out of the university is closely monitored.
In addition to visible security officers surrounding the university, there are also undercover agents who parked a large bus in front of the entrance gate to prevent people outside from seeing what was happening inside.

The untimely murder of an innocent

This harrowing footage of a young woman's death is as absolute an idictment of the crimes of the Supreme Leader of Iran as anyone could produce. Potkin supplied this link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSaie_ss4z8

Students heckle Larajani

So there's trouble again in Iran. Curious what a quiet summer it was. But I suppose the Basiji can't keep the lid on things for ever.

Iran's head of the Islamic Assembly, Ali Larijani was jeered and heckled by Shiraz university students at the Fajr Hall yesterday, where he was invited to speak by the hardline students. Herasat (Informers) agents at the university as well intelligence ministry operators were there in large numbers and had declared no placards or mobile phones were allowed to be carried into the hall. Everyone was searched before being allowed in. Once the students entered the hall, they saw Baseej students who had already occupied the front seats.

Iran avoids more sanctions

Meir Javadanfar is concerned at the way Iran has avoided more sanctions. Shape of things to come though. There are few brakes evident on Iran's ambitions

The Iranian government has managed to weather another set of sanction from the UN. This is despite Ahmadinejad’s speech at the UN General Assembly, which was anti Western and anti- semitic.

Students wearing ties risk not graduating

It seems tie-wearing has become a symbol of student defiance in Iran.

See article from Potkin here

Iranians aren't about to overthrow the Mullahs

Excellent article
from Newsweek.








Dispatch From Iran

Iranians may have lost faith in the mullahs, but they're not about to overthrow them.

By Michael Hirsh
Newsweek

July 2-9, 2007 issue - Where the heck are the mullahs? And what happened to all those angry young Revolutionary Guards eager to take you hostage—or, at the very least, spit in your face for personally representing the Great Satan?

This is the most jarring impression an American caught in the time warp of 1979 has upon landing in today's Tehran, where Islamic fervor has been replaced by Islamic bling. Luxury stores are loaded with jewelry, leather handbags and knockoffs of Western designer brands, and coffee shops and restaurants are crowded late into the night.

This is still the Islamic Republic of Iran, of course, so there are no bare shoulders or legs in sight, much less midriffs, even in the summer heat. But many Iranian women have long since cast off their chadors and gone defiantly chic, despite an abortive attempt by the government this past spring to reassert strictures on modesty, when it sent carloads of basij—or young paramilitaries—out to harass females who dared show too much skin or hair. The typical look around town consists of perfect makeup (spread over exquisitely straight noses; cosmetic surgery is a huge business here), faded jeans under form-fitting Islamic "manteaus"—a sort of truncated raincoat that comes to mid-thigh—and colorful silk higabs loosely arrayed over the backs of their heads.

Click here to read the entire article