US withdrawal from Iraq: Impact on Iran

Opinion is divided on the impact that the immanent withdrawal of US troops from Iraq will have on Iran.

Iran’s allies in Baghdad reportedly want the US out as soon as possible and analysts are saying that as U.S. withdrawal draws closer, the time has now come for Iran to act.

Many blame a cross section of Iranian political groups for the recent escalation in violence in Iraq. American officials have voiced concern over weapons which they believe Iran has been supplying to Iraqi extremists, to encourage a continuation of the increased hostilities .

US withdrawal could clear the way for Iran to claim Iraq as a new sphere of influence. If the fight is viewed as two sided; one side backed by the U.S, the other Iran-backed Sadrists; the withdrawal of the US is almost certain to sway the balance in favour of the Iranians. With no U.S. forces present, it will be in Maliki’s interest to turn towards Tehran.

Katzman says that he sees Iraq as primed to be Iran’s ‘new Syria’ but Iraqi nationalism is a growing force and there are Iraqis who resent this, not wishing to be influenced by anyone. However, there is a broad consensus among the Iraqi people that it is better to move towards Iran than bind themselves to Turkey.

An Iraqi alliance with Iran would cripple a future relationship with America, along with any investment that would come with it. This would be a blow not only for Iraq but for America too.

Whilst it is not a view commonly held, it may be the case that Iran is in fact weakened by U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.

The lack of US presence in the region will remove that which Iran has opposed for so long. Iran will lack a common enemy to unite those they wish to influence. A decline in anti-American feeling may arise leaving Iran with much reduced support in Iraq.

Some sources say that Tehran is concerned about the prospect of an Iraqi invasion; something which U.S. presence ensures will not occur.

It is hard to judge whether or not Iran will benefit from the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq but regardless of the outcome, it will be interesting to observe the international communities response to Iran in the coming years.