Nuclear Games

Well - the West has finaly caught on that Iran won't have anything to do with reprocessing overseas. Bloody obvious really. And now the UAE is jumping on the same bandwagon with the help of French nuclear proliferation.

Associated Press - 21 November, 2009
Representatives of six world powers urged Iran on Friday to accept a U.N. plan aimed at delaying its ability to build a nuclear weapon, as the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency warned Tehran not to miss the opportunity to resolve the dispute.

Karoubi is the Best

Iran Bypasses the Latest Proposal

Time and time again, the term “needed negotiation” has been tossed around within the UN. All representatives have repeatedly indicated their eagerness to participate in compromise. However up until this week’s events, the term “negotiation” had always been subject to mere phraseology. Verbal chivalry of all sides; nothing more and nothing less, that is all it has been up until this week’s meeting.

October 19^th was the date in which the long awaited discourse took place. Iran agreed to the proposal offered in 2006 by the 6 world powers for negotiation in Vienna. It has taken us 4 years, and much international antagonistic correspondence, to finally witness the long awaited negotiations.

Interestingly this came after a much frustrated speech by the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. She stated that “the international community will not wait indefinitely for evidence that Iran is prepared to live up to its international obligations”. Enough has been enough, and the clock is ticking. In agreement with Mrs Clinton, the British Foreign Minister David Miliband urged that Iran must start to behave like a “normal country”.

Now what constitutes a normal country is debatable. Such terminology strongly implies the superiority of one state over the other. Denoting that the latter as inferior, irrational and possibly even insane. Undoubtedly such autocratic threats of suggested violence against Iran; by Mrs. Clinton; and the degrading of Iran’s credibility are certainly not offering any practical solutions to the issue at hand.

Nonetheless, with disregard to the international rivalry, a draft proposal was forwarded to Iran during the negotiating discourse. The deal put forward by the Atomic Energy Agency is for Iran to ship 70% of its uranium abroad for enrichment. This consequently eases Western fears about Iran’s potential to make nuclear weapons.

Today however, press releases reveal that Iran dodged the internationally approved proposal, and instead wished for the UN committee to review its own proposal on the issue. Details of Iran’s personal proposal are confidential up until now. Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Deputy Speaker of Iran's parliament said, "They [Western officials] tell us: you give us your 3.5 percent enriched uranium, and we will give you the fuel for the Tehran reactor. It is not acceptable to us."

Examining the cultural context of Iranian society, it is simply considered outrageously obnoxious for one to be told of how to conduct its national and international policy. Evidently, Iran is determined to reach a solution on its own grounds.

This is an Iranian issue, and hence an opportunity must be made for Iran to provide its own input. Iran demands autonomy and trust from the international nations. Passivity to international authority and threat is not an option that Iran is willing to take. Iran demands justice and a liberated, unrepressed say into the matter.

The attack on the Revolutionary Guard

NCF Senior Fellow Jonathan Paris writes:

The terrorist attacks on October 18 killing dozens of Revolutionary Guardsmen, including seven top commanders, and several tribal leaders in Southeastern Iran are the latest episode of a three-fold challenge to the Regime. These attacks were followed two days later by the shooting of two Iranian police officers in Iranshahr in the same Sistan-Baluchistan province. The Iranian government has to cope not just with the revival of the minorities’ issue, but also with the international community’s pressures and with tensions within the elites that are preventing the Regime from reconsolidating its pre-June 12 election day legitimacy.

What about the possibility of any governmental retaliation against the Baluchi minority? The Revolutionary Guard underestimated the threat coming from Jundallah, a Baluchi Sunni group that has been responsible for several attacks against the Government and against Shia. While some Iranian Regime figures, including the leader of the Revolutionary Guard, are calling for retaliation against the US, UK and even Pakistan, a neighboring country with which Iran has had good relations for decades, an escalation by the Shia government against the Sunni Baluch would be unwise.

The border between Iran and Pakistan where the attack took place is very porous, and some Al Qaeda members or Taliban could easily become provoked to come over to join their oppressed Jundallah brothers. At this time, the Jundallah movement seems to be ‘homegrown’ and Teheran’s accusations of Pakistani involvement in Sunday’s attacks are easy to dismiss. Ironically, Teheran is accusing the Pakistan Army secret services (ISI) of supporting Jundallah, when in fact, Jundallah’s natural allies, Al Qaeda and the Taliban, are under attack by the Pakistan Army in nearby South Waziristan.

It is also easy to dismiss Regime accusations of United States and United Kingdom involvement in Jundallah’s activities, or in general with minorities in Iran. The tensions are a result of decades of mistreatment and underdevelopment. The Kurds, Turks, Arabs, Baluchis and others have been on the short end of the stick in terms of funds for education, health care, jobs and any government largesse. Let’s not forget as well that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s record on human rights, including the rights of minorities is dreadful.

What is most surprising is the failure of Iranian security services to protect leaders of the national and provincial Revolutionary Guard, who were struck down during Sunday’s attacks. Could this be an inside job, given the amount of information available following the purge in the Intelligence Ministry of over 10,000 workers considered unreliably loyal to the Regime?

Terrorism among minorities is only one of the problems the Regime faces from the people of Iran. The Green Movement in the streets of Teheran and other urban areas can erupt again at any moment, most likely, on the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy on November 4th. Just as Al Quds or Jerusalem Day on September 18th was an excuse for the reformists to take to the streets against the Regime (with slogans attacking the Supreme Leader himself), the Regime is likely to encounter further street demonstrations and even workers strikes at any time. The Regime simply is not in control over the protest movement even if the balance of forces overwhelmingly favors the Regime.

While the Regime battles its minorities and urban demonstrators, it has to contend with two other issues: Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and other reformist or neo-reformist leaders refuse to buckle under President Ahmadinejad’s rule. Just as importantly, Ahmadinejad is having difficulty getting even the hard liners among Iranian ruling elites to support his appointments. At the same time, Ahmadinejad’s government is battling the international community, which is starting to coalesce on sanctions. It is hard to imagine the Regime being able to fight on all three fronts: the people, the elites and the international community, at the same time. Something has to give.

Jonathan Paris is also a London-based Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center.

The Arab World and the Iranian Nuclear File

Elizabeth Iskander at World Politics Review writes:

"The diplomatic effort to contain the Iranian nuclear program needs to be led by a truly international coalition, not just an American or Western one. The focus should be on altering the terms of the debate that currently allow Iran to actually benefit from external pressure, using it to further entrench and justify its defiant stance.

In order to do so, it is essential that the Arab world become engaged, publicly, in achieving a solution. Arab participation would not only be practically beneficial in bringing regional expertise and experience to the table, but also symbolically important. It would undermine the Iranian government's discourse that represents itself as the defender of Islam against Western aggression."

Ahmadinejad was born with a jewish surname

The document reveals that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was previously known as Sabourjian – a jewish name meaning "cloth weaver".
The Sabourjians traditionally originate from Aradan , Mr Ahmadinejad’s birthplace, the name for the Jewish Tallit shawl in Persia. The name is even on the list of reserved names for Iranian Jews compiled by Iran’s Minister of the Interior.
“jian” ending to the name specifically showed the family had been Jews.
Mehdi Khazali, an internet blogger, is the son of Aytollah Khazali, a former member of the Guardian Council, who called for an investigation of Mr Ahmadinejad’s roots was arrested this summer.
Mehdi Khazali claimed that Ahmadinejad’s family name was changed from Sabourjian and his forefathers were Jewish converts into Islam.
Mr Ahmadinejad has regularly levelled harsh criticism at Israel, questioned its right to exist and denied the Holocaust. British diplomats walked out of a UN meeting last month after the Iranian president denounced Israeli’s 'genocide, barbarism and racism'.
In my opinion, that is an unverified gossip and it could be wrong.

ahmadinejad a

Nuclear Free Mid East

Well Iran has agreed to let the weapons inspectors in to look at its new nuclear site. Which it had to I guess. And which is anyway you look at it good.

Associated Press - 27 September, 2009
Iran said yesterday it will allow UN nuclear inspectors to examine its newly revealed, still unfinished uranium enrichment facility as world criticism mounted over the underground site that was developed secretly.

And good again is the fact that the Saudis are backing a nuclear free mid east. We just need mid east wide non-proliferation talks and we are going somewhere.

Kuwait News Agency - 27 September, 2009
Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal on Saturday complained that departure from the principles of international legitimacy and the requirements of universal justice remains the root cause of the risks of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Middle East, including the Gulf region.

Ahmadinejad's up to no good

Iranian President said his country has complied with UN rules that require it to inform the IAEA six months before a uranium enrichment facility becomes operational....

But hey - what would they have ever said if those British spies had not spilt the beans. Truth is Iran wants nuclear power and nuclear weapons and once the Russians started down the proliferation route the consequences were inevitable.