One week on - where do we stand?

Last Saturday a deal was struck – a deal that may well transform beyond recognition some of the most familiar paradigms of Middle Eastern power politics.

Feeling rebuffed by the United States, a furious Israel now has more in common with Saudi Arabia than anywhere else and is hailing France as its new preferred partner in crime. Only time will tell if we’ll see a return to the old status quo but, in the meantime, it is worth re-examining the current state of play.

Disappointingly, but inevitably, the interim agreement – under which Iran pledged that it would freeze its nuclear programme in exchange for measured sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich uranium – has been greeted with as much anger as it has applause.

No one has been more outspoken about this than Bibi Netanyahu (no surprises there). Indeed, Tel Aviv was quick to condemn the agreement immediately after it was reached. 

The following day, Netanyahu called it an “historic mistake” and announced that he had plans to dispatch a team – headed up by his national security adviser, Yossi Cohen – to Washington this week to exercise damage limitation in the negotiations to come.

It is important to keep this all in perspective for, while the agreement does change things, it by doesn’t present a permanent solution and, as one Israeli official announced this week, “the ball is still in play”: there are six long months of further discussions to go.

So, while it may have started on its way, Iran is not out of the red yet and, to a large extent, the real hard work has only just begun. Now, the United States and the rest of the world need to placate and appease a very angry Israel, an Israel that is sure to obstruct at every step of the way in the upcoming negotiations.

According to Netanyahu, Tel Aviv will not accept anything but its maximum, unrealistic demand that Iran’s nuclear programme is totally dismantled. In his warped worldview, this deal is actually a step back – because of it, “the most dangerous regime in the world has taken a significant step toward attaining the most dangerous weapon in the world”. Does anyone else shiver at Bibi’s almost nostalgic reference to Bush Jr?

It is remarkable how the Israeli PM can create something out of nothing, for well-known is the fact that the core of a nuclear bomb requires 90% enriched uranium. Under this new deal, though, the Islamic Republic will be able to haltingly enrich to a mere 5%.

Clearly, the usual scaremongers are acting as normal, doing what they do best and trying as hard as they can to derail the process of reconciliation, sparing, in Mohammad Zarif’s words, “no pretext and device to bring the deal to nothing”.