Is the media's confidence in rapprochement misplaced?

As Israeli warmongering and American indecision continue to prevail across the Middle East, one is increasingly unable to determine whether military action against Iran is an inevitably rather than a possibility. Some may say that what we are observing nowadays is a true effort at rapprochement being engaged in by both sides, but I am not so confident.

While Hassan Rouhani’s election is without doubt a coup for the moderates in the Islamic Republic, he is no dove. And even if he was, it would not matter much – there is no question that Khamene’i is the ultimate authority in Iran and, as ultimate authority, will be calling the shots over the nuclear programme amidst the rest of Tehran’s foreign policy.

Barack Obama’s seemingly conciliatory posture towards Rouhani’s Tehran is, similarly, not to be misinterpreted. While Obama may truly want reconciliation – and I believe he does – he is shackled by the harsh realities of Capitol Hill. The executive branch of United States politics has become less and less in control of American foreign policy over the past few decades. So, even when a dove is in the White House, it is not a given that Washington will wage peace not war.

All the same, the unprecedented indecision that has wracked Washington over the last few months does somewhat diminish likelihood of a US-led (or even US-backed) strike against the Islamic Republic. If Obama could not convince his peers to back him in a limited campaign against a weakened Syria, then he is almost certainly not going to be able to convince Congress that attacking Iran is a good idea. At this stage, one can but hypothesise; in light of Washington’s deteriorating polarisation, though, an American attack is becoming less likely by the day.

So, where is Israel in all this? Its determination to tackle the threat it perceives in Iran needs no introduction. In tackling this threat, Washington’s help is paramount and, until recently at least, has been a reliable assumption. However, Washington’s help cannot be relied upon as it once was. Not only will it be unwilling to disrupt the current honeymoon period with Rouhani, partisanship is likely to obstruct any decision-making on the way to a strike even if the president expressed a desire to.

Tel Aviv may deny it, as may Washington, but the likelihood and feasibility of a military strike against Iran is not what it once was. Recent months have decisively proven that resolve is hard to come by in the United States currently, and without demonstrable resolve, the credibility of the US and Israel’s military threat is weakened, no matter how much bellicose rhetoric is ejaculated by the neocons and Netanyahu and his cronies. Worryingly for them, the absence of a credible military threat severely restricts the efficacy of the current coercive strategy against the country.