Half Baked Uranium

Last month’s UN 68th session has been optimistically viewed as the beginning of a detente between the West and a reformist led Iran. With today being the start of a two day Geneva summit we will see if there will be any truth to these high hopes, or whether it will be another half baked discourse between old enemies. 

There have been recent noises out of Iran indicating that Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif would only lead the Iranian team if the G5+1 nations were represented by their Foreign Ministers too. Yet, today Zarif gave a presentation to the diplomats present, with only Baroness Catherine Ashton whom can be seen as the Foreign Minister of the European Union in attendance. Unfortunately United States Secretary of State John Kerry flew back home a few days ago, with the US instead  represented by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman. However, this apparent lack of commitment has been balanced out by the presence of financial experts in the US delegation, ostensibly ready to act on creating a plan on sanction reduction if the Iranians provide a satisfactory deal. 

It is unlikely that with such a short timeline, a two day session of talks, will provide anything more than a goodwill gesture. That the West not only wants the cessation of production of 20% enriched uranium, something Iran has indicated they can indeed agree to, but also desires the already enriched uranium to be shipped out of Iran, an issue the Iranian government has stated is non-negotiable. In addition, the US and their Western allies desire to see the shutdown of the Fordo production site near Qom. This would consequently hinder any future Iranian attempt at high grade enrichment. 

Whilst peaceful dialogue must always be promoted, it has to be concluded that these discussions cannot be viewed too optimistically. That Baroness Ashton is representing the West symbolizes a lack of US involvement that is most likely the result of a combination of problems at home and a disbelief that Iran intends to seriously negotiate on such a short time frame. Unless these talks end with a promise of a comprehensive discussion over a longer period then it is unlikely that we will see any crucial change in geopolitics in the Middle East. Yet, if the West does not take advantage of the situation presented to them now, they may see that President Rouhani will be faced with too much pressure at home to offer the olive branch again.