Britain and Iran

While British Diplomatic staff are on their way back home from the Persian Gulf, some consideration can be given to events of the last few days. The reaction of the Foreign Office was tough, and more has to come, as the Foreign Minister Hague stated yesterday. Probably, future actions will also involve other European countries, and the EU will have a special role in setting and implementing economic and financial sanctions, while both the US and Isreal are supporting harder plans.
The young demostrators storming the British Embassy in Tehran can be satisfied with their actions, and the media coverage remembered events of more than 30 years ago. But an additional and different explanation can be found looking at the Iranian domestic dynamics. Next Majlis elections are approaching quite fast, and the March 2012 term is already on the political table - the first elections since the much debated 2009 Presidential ones. With the reformist movements put in a corner at the moment, the real game will be played among the conservative groups. President Ahmadinejad is in troubled waters: his economic reforms are not improving the internal economic situation and his relations with part of the regime establishment and the Supreme Leader are not as good as a couple of years ago. Since Khamenei will represent the decisive player of the game as usual, the conservative factions are fighting to attract the Supreme Leader's support, and even storming a foreign Embassy could become an important signal in this struggle, along with other foreign policy issues. The Iranian population will probably face harsh times in the coming months, but some persons in Tehran smile looking at the empty British compound.