Darioush Rezai-Nejad, a 35 year old Iranian scientist, was assassinated in Tehran on July 23rd. His wife was also wounded in the attack, carried out by two unknown gunmen on motorcycles. Although it is still unclear whether he had links to the Iranian nuclear program, his assassination is conspicuously similar to several attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists since 2007.
Iranian officials quickly blamed the US and Israel for the attack. US denies any involvement, while Israel refuses to comment, as they always do in intelligence matters.
Who is to gain from assassinating these people? Surely neither the US nor Israel. Assassinating individual scientists would hardly be sufficient to deter or slow down the nuclear program. Quite the contrary, both countries, by being accused of standing behind the assassinations, risk losing even more of their limited legitimacy in the Middle East, particularly in Iran. Furthermore, the Iranians are likely to be fierier about their nuclear program as a consequence of the assassinations. Hence, although the CIA or Mossad surely wouldn’t be morally disinclined to carry out such action, it is difficult to see how it would be in their interest to do so. Iran’s government has more to gain, as it gives them the opportunity to further antagonize the US and Israel, thus boosting their own legitimacy and that of their nuclear program. Whether the Iranians would be willing to kill their own scientists in a political game is, however, very uncertain.
No matter who is behind the assassinations, there is every reason to believe that the Iranian leadership will continue to use this event as effectively as possible in their political rhetoric.
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