When Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressed the Iranian people at Tehran Friday prayers in July following the disputed presidential elections of 12th June, his warning to protesters was quickly realised in a fierce crackdown. Using the Baseej (a volunteer-based "people's army"), demonstrations were crushed with brutal force.
In the weeks that followed, the world witnessed mass arrests of demonstrators and show trials; all aimed at stifling the opposition movement that rose up in the wake of Ahmadinejad's reinstallment as President. Accusations of continued arrests and the torture and rape of the prisoners have resounded across global media platforms.
In his sermon yesterday, Khamenei reiterated his warning to protesters, “Those who clash with the establishment and turn their backs on the Islamic establishment become enemies.” This has raised fears that the opposition face another surge in the crackdown against them. Despite such fears, opposition activists have been disseminating recordings of the nightly "Allah-o Akbar" chants, which they claim have only increased in volume in reaction to the Supreme Leader's sermon.
Why did Khamenei choose yesterday to lead Friday prayers once more? He is clearly concerned that there will be renewed protests planned to coincide with al-Qods day. In Iran, this is a national day that falls on the last Friday of Ramadan (this year on 18th September) and in Europe on the last Sunday of Ramadan (this year on13th September). In his sermon, Khamenei urged Iranian youth to celebrate al-Qods day and warned against using the occasion to create further divisions in Iranian society by renewing protests. He said that al-Qods Day must focus on its core issue, which is the Palestinian issue.
It should also be noted that we are now in the run up to the new academic year and therefore it is vital that the Supreme Leader has a tight grip on the Iranian street before the universities reopen. Universities are traditionally a key site of political and social dissent in Iran and students have been key targets in raids and arrests since the dissent over the election results brought demonstrators out onto the streets. Reports on 4th September said that reformist student leaders were arrested in Mashhad. Such continued arrests, raids and threats perhaps give a hint of what can be expected in the lead up to the reopening of the universities.
In yesterday's sermon, Khamenei went on to say, "a harsh answer awaits anyone who dares to draw a sword against the Islamic Republic." It seems that Mehdi Karroubi, the most radical of the reformist opposition leaders, may be particular target of this warning. There are suggestions that the Supreme Leader has ordered his arrest. Again, this is probably linked to his popularity among students, which could strengthen his position when the new academic year begins.
Clearly, the Supreme Leader's statements have raised fears of further violence. He has explicitly indicated that he considers such violence to be justifiable in defending the Iranian establishment as the legitimate government of Iran. Unfortunately he cannot see that having broken the social contract between the government and the citizens the establishment has been divested of its legitimacy. If an establishment has to beat its people into submission it becomes a dictatorship rather than a government.
In the weeks that followed, the world witnessed mass arrests of demonstrators and show trials; all aimed at stifling the opposition movement that rose up in the wake of Ahmadinejad's reinstallment as President. Accusations of continued arrests and the torture and rape of the prisoners have resounded across global media platforms.
In his sermon yesterday, Khamenei reiterated his warning to protesters, “Those who clash with the establishment and turn their backs on the Islamic establishment become enemies.” This has raised fears that the opposition face another surge in the crackdown against them. Despite such fears, opposition activists have been disseminating recordings of the nightly "Allah-o Akbar" chants, which they claim have only increased in volume in reaction to the Supreme Leader's sermon.
Why did Khamenei choose yesterday to lead Friday prayers once more? He is clearly concerned that there will be renewed protests planned to coincide with al-Qods day. In Iran, this is a national day that falls on the last Friday of Ramadan (this year on 18th September) and in Europe on the last Sunday of Ramadan (this year on13th September). In his sermon, Khamenei urged Iranian youth to celebrate al-Qods day and warned against using the occasion to create further divisions in Iranian society by renewing protests. He said that al-Qods Day must focus on its core issue, which is the Palestinian issue.
It should also be noted that we are now in the run up to the new academic year and therefore it is vital that the Supreme Leader has a tight grip on the Iranian street before the universities reopen. Universities are traditionally a key site of political and social dissent in Iran and students have been key targets in raids and arrests since the dissent over the election results brought demonstrators out onto the streets. Reports on 4th September said that reformist student leaders were arrested in Mashhad. Such continued arrests, raids and threats perhaps give a hint of what can be expected in the lead up to the reopening of the universities.
In yesterday's sermon, Khamenei went on to say, "a harsh answer awaits anyone who dares to draw a sword against the Islamic Republic." It seems that Mehdi Karroubi, the most radical of the reformist opposition leaders, may be particular target of this warning. There are suggestions that the Supreme Leader has ordered his arrest. Again, this is probably linked to his popularity among students, which could strengthen his position when the new academic year begins.
Clearly, the Supreme Leader's statements have raised fears of further violence. He has explicitly indicated that he considers such violence to be justifiable in defending the Iranian establishment as the legitimate government of Iran. Unfortunately he cannot see that having broken the social contract between the government and the citizens the establishment has been divested of its legitimacy. If an establishment has to beat its people into submission it becomes a dictatorship rather than a government.
1 comment:
Other developments today:
1. Iran has sent a letter to the P5 + one nations to offer them wide ranging talks.
2. Putin has ruled out military attacks to bring Iran into line.
Post a Comment