What Bibi's Iran interview (doesn't) signal

In yesterday's interview with BBC Persian, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu appeared to have had a change of heart regarding Israel’s long-standing rival, Iran. 

No more was he speaking exclusively of pre-emptive strikes against Iran’s “messianic apocalyptic cult” of a regime; rather, toning down his rhetoric, Netanyahu’s mood seems to have tempered. More than anything, he claimed, he wants to see “a diplomatic solution to end Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons”. Not unlike Barack Obama in his 2011 Nowruz statement to the Iranian population, in recent interviews Netanyahu has channeled his enmity against Khamenei’s clerical government and suggested that, if it was taken out of the equation, the peoples of Israel and Iran could be reconciled.

He warns that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic would render the regime “immortal, like North Korea”, because of the severely limiting effect it would have upon the West’s ability to deter any Iranian violations of international legal and humanitarian norms. Eliminating Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium, therefore, is in the interests of the Iranian people as much as anyone else, according to Bibi’s reasoning.

Netanyahu’s apparent shift from unwavering belligerence to extending a hand to the Iranian people and focusing on their plight means little, though. While urging Iranians to demand the cessation of the nuclear programme has a certain ring to it in the confines of a BBC studio, it is little more than a symbolic gesture and Netanyahu knows it. Even though a considerable segment of the Islamic Republic’s population does not agree with Khamenei’s politicking, much of that same segment openly supports the development of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The prevailing position among the wider population is that nuclear progress is the indefatigable right of the Iranian people, and no one, let alone Tel Aviv, has the right to change that. The Israeli PM's remarks are unlikely to stir up much of a reaction.

While Netanyahu did not explicitly dismiss the possibility of Iran’s having a civilian nuclear programme, he has in the past done so in no uncertain terms. To BBC Persian, he announced that he wants the “complete dismantling of Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons” (not that it yet has one). However, one of the unfortunate facts of nuclear technology is that there is significant crossover between civilian and military nuclear capabilities. A “complete dismantling” would likely preclude even the most heavily monitored of civilian nuclear capabilities.

Netanyahu’s recent rhetoric may seem to signal a change in tack from belligerence towards diplomacy, but it is no more than his symbolically reacting to the shifting sands of international politics. Recently, Obama and Rouhani seem to have made real progress on the diplomatic front, and Israel cannot be seen to be falling behind. If Tel Aviv does not follow suit with Washington’s actions, it risks alienating its most important protector. The White House’s move back towards a dual-track approach with the election of Rouhani is an nternational imprimatur for others to follow, and Israel must at least appear to join in.

I, as much as Netanyahu himself, want “to see a real solution, not a fake one”. But such a solution remains distant and requires immense diplomatic effort, publicly and privately, neither of which Tel Aviv is engaging in. The sanctions strategy seems to be dead in the water and, increasingly, the only way the Islamic Republic will be led off the nuclear path besides military action is by meaningful engagement, a real carrot-and-stick strategy. At the moment, we are left with ever-tightening sanctions that will prove harder to relax the more they are piled on and no incentive for Khamenei to reverse his policy decisions. 

A solution is on the horizon, but the path towards it is neither obvious nor easy to follow once it’s been found. Western policymakers need to recognise that Tehran cannot be bottlenecked into catering to their wishes. As Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Washington’s foremost sanctions expert, remarks, “it is hard to bully a bully with economic measures”. A more nuanced approach is necessary.

You can watch the full interview on BBC Persian TV on Saturday at 1930 BST.