The war’s afoot; to be played out later

 

The drums of war in the Middle East seem to be sounding with more volume. Aside from the Syrian situation, reports of an Israeli attack on Iran are gathering momentum. Recent reports tell of Israel buying airfields in Iran’s northern neighbour, Azerbaijan. A senior US administration official was quoted in a Foreign Policy article as saying, “The Israeli’s have bought an airfield, and the airfield is Azerbaijan.” It purportedly has four unused Soviet airfields which may be of interest to Israel and would provide close proximity to Iranian nuclear bases in Fardow, Arak and Tehran. Launching from the airfields in Azerbaijan would remove the need to gain Saudi or Iraqi air space clearance for attacks.

Israel and Azerbaijan enjoy a discreet and strategic relationship. Israel was one of the first six main countries with which Baku established diplomatic relations; Iran being one of the others. Israel provides assistance to Azerbaijan on trade and security as well as frequent cultural and educational exchanges. Last month, Tel Aviv announced that it had sold drone and anti-aircraft missiles worth $1.6bn to Azerbaijan. The reported acquisition of the Soviet airfields would seem to shore up that sale as another beat in the war drum.

However, the situation may not be that easy to assess. Azerbaijan has good diplomatic relations with Iran. Approximately 30% of Iran’s population is Azeri, including Ayatollah Khamenei. Azeris in Iran are well integrated within Persian society and share a similar standard of living. Furthermore, Azeri Iranians do not see political or socio-economic problems in terms of their ethnicity and the issue of secession in South and West Azerbaijan in northern Iran is not strongly supported. Likewise, Azerbaijan’s border with Iran is not well protected and the possibility of a mass exodus of people or reprisals from Iran would endanger Baku greatly. It is possible that Azerbaijan may be worried by the spread of Shia Islamism; although its main religion is Shia, Azerbaijan’s constitution is secular and Islam is viewed as a cultural identity rather a religious one. However, President Ilham Aliyev is unlikely to support Israel just on this basis given the large Azeri population in Iran.

Azerbaijan also holds very close ties with Turkey; its most important bilateral relationship is with Ankara. As well as sharing cultural connections they have historically been united over their opposition to Armenia, especially since Azerbaijan lost several regions to Armenia in the Nagarno-Karabakh War that lasted from 1988 to 1994. Despite declaring independence under Armenian support, Nagarno-Karabakh is not recognised internationally as an independent state. Relations began to strain between the Azerbaijan and Turkey on gas prices and the improving Turkish relations with Armenia, but diplomatic visits by Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, have subsequently led to Azerbaijan ratifying an agreement in December 2010 with Ankara strengthening bilateral relations on issues such as military, economic, humanitarian and social issues.

Turkey also has good trade relations with Iran. Although Tehran’s reported plans of nuclear proliferation are strongly opposed by both Israel and Turkey, Israeli rhetoric of war on Iran would destabilise these relations for Turkey, much in the same way the current Syrian crisis continues to. With the deteriorating relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv following Erdogan’s increasing standing in the Arab world and the Gaza flotilla attacks, Turkey is more likely than ever to oppose heavy handed threats of war on Iran. The NATO anti-missile shield located in Turkey could come under Iranian attacks should such threats become a reality. If the Foreign Policy sources are true, Turkey may use its considerable influence over Azerbaijan to deter such escalation.

It is important to note that the Foreign Policy source was ostensibly a senior US administration official. Such an admission by the US official could be read as a move by the Obama administration to undermine Israeli drum beats of war. As mentioned in our recent blog on the Middle East peace process, the Obama administration is hugely reluctant to support Israeli strikes on Iran in an election year that will likely focus predominantly on the struggling economy. Mitt Romney will no doubt pressure Obama on Russia and Iran, but the foreign policy issues are likely to play second fiddle to the economy; the American populace is weary of another war abroad while they cannot secure a job at home.

Our Israeli sources were also divided on the inevitability of a war with Iran in the coming months. Netanyahu needs support from the Knesset and substantial American military backing to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran which doesn’t seem likely in the coming months. Until then, the drum beats may just be playing out the possibility of a new Cold War.