Wednesday 13th October heralds the arrival of the provocative Iranian Chief Executive on his first official visit to Lebanon.
In recent months Ahmadinejad has showed his tireless dedication to butting into world affairs: stealing the limelight at the UN last month, writing to the Pope, wooing Cuba, bitching about the Americans with Syria, and now this week visiting Lebanon just as sectarian grudges are on the verge of erupting.
Regretfully over the weekend Sheikh Nasrallah rebuffed the rumours that the Iranian President would make use of Lebanon’s geographic proximity to his nation’s archenemy in order to hurl stones across the border.
Instead he will officially open ‘Iran Garden’ on a hilltop overlooking Israeli farmland. It will stand as a blatant display of the Iranian money pumped into the area via Hezbollah in the aftermath of the 2006 conflict between Israel and the militia.
It may not be as photo-opportunistic as stone-throwing, but an Iranian flag fluttering over a children’s playground is certainly a more enduring and galling provocation to Israel and the world.
Lebanese politics are at a very sensitive and complicated stage and the US State Department believes Iran is “actively undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty” through its patronage of Hezbollah.
And yet August’s hold on $100million of military aid to Lebanon has widened the arsenal-shaped gap between the national army and the militia. As Nasrallah explained, “Hezbollah does not trust the Lebanese government’s bureaucracy. And the Iranians paid in cash.” This is why the militia is Lebanon’s strongest armed force.
What is more, the solid new houses and Iranian-financed tarmac roads in South Lebanon will offer secure firing positions and efficient routes to militia strongholds should any fighting break out.
And break out they might.
The results of the UN tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are likely to arrive this month, and most people can already guess what they’ll say. Should members of Hezbollah be indicted, violence between the Shiite force and Hariri’s mainly Sunni allies would be agonizingly predictable; with the added frisson of potentially dragging Syria and Iran into the fray.
Equally, should Israel or the US choose to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, Hezbollah would, apparently, have no option but to consider military retaliation on its patron’s behalf.
All we can do for now is hold our breath and see what developments Wednesday brings.
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