The West and Iran are posturing ahead of tomorrow's big demo. The US is saying it wants a UN sanctions resolution within weeks. Meanwhile:Tomorrow (Thursday's) upcoming anniversary of the Iranian revolution will be a major test in the struggle between Ayatollah Khāmene’i and the opposition.
The government has issued a warning to the people not to come out onto the streets.
Mousavi has said it should be a "day of the public".
This is a face-off.
If there are major numbers then Khāmene’i is facing sustained opposition. A major demonstration on the anniversary of the revolution is almost insulting to Khāmene’i as it implies he has failed to carry forward the legacy of the Revolution.
If the numbers are small then the crack-down is working - people will give up and go underground and resort to secret meetings and sabotage.
The man to watch is Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini (the son of Ahmad Khomeini, who was the Grand Ayatollah's youngest son and always very close to his father). He is annoyed with Ahmadinejad and has an uncomfortable relationship with the conservatives. If he comes out vocally or visibly in support of the Greens it will be a further problem for Khāmene’i (Hassan Khomeini has already been having meetings with them).
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