Sunday, July 20, 2008

Talk the talk


The news that the U.S. agreed to be present at EU-Iran nuclear talks was a positive sign that Washington has indeed learned from its recent successes with North Korea.

The U.S. has left it to the Europeans, and their chief policy advisor Javier Solana, to negotiate with Iran. However, from now on, just as the case with North Korea, the U.S. will be present at the negotiations.

"The substance remains the same, but this is a new tactic," said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino. "What this does show is how serious we are when we say that we want to try to solve this diplomatically," she added. It does show that, indeed.

Perhaps it also shows that the Republicans are willing to set aside their love of the stick, and use some carrots, if that means that they have a better chance in November.

This move will also allow America to become closer to Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia who have called for a bigger U.S. diplomatic push on this front. The US desperately needs this.

Alongside this news, is that the U.S. is going to open an "interest section" in Tehran, a move which was welcomed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Both moves are likely to increase U.S. leverage against Iran
, while adding credibility to the position of Washington as a strong power broker in the Middle East. By talking the talk, they are going to be able to walk the walk, with much more consequence.

This shift in policy, which comes after 30 years of strained relations between the two sides, has come at the right time.

Iran's position in the region has been gathering strength. As well as scoring successes in Iraq, the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah has given Tehran even more influence.

To those in the region who desire to see a weakened Israel, Iran's ally Hezbollah has proved to them that hostage-taking works, and that Israel is prepared to pay any price, including the release of terrorists such as Samir Kuntar. Hezbollah's leader did not hide his glee.

Ridiculing what he called the failure of Israeli intelligence to determine the fate of its two soldiers, he told a massive crowd in Beirut that "had the Zionists been able to establish that their two soldiers are dead, they would have demanded a different outcome."

But this is not the end of it.

The taste of success has left many pro-Hezbollah Lebanese wanting more. They now want to pressure Israel to "return" the Shebaa farms, even though according to the UN it is not Lebanese territory: it is Syrian.

This trick was put together by Damascus after Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000. Once the UN confirmed that Israel had abided by all the requirements from UN Security Council Resolution 425, and was no longer occupying Lebanese territory, Damascus suddenly panicked.

It realized that its ally Hezbollah no longer had any justification to attack Israel. Consequently, it decided to "donate" the Shebaa farms, which is close to the Golan, to Lebanon. However, to the fury of anti-Syrian elements in Lebanon, such as Walid Jumblatt, Assad refused to sign a document endorsing this.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah gratefully accepted the verbal promises of Syria and now wants to use its new leverage to pressure Israel to return the territory to Lebanon.

What should worry Jerusalem and Washington is that Hezbollah and Lebanon's pro-Syrian president Michel Suleiman wants to do this with Syria's help.

In other words, by releasing the Hezbollah hostages, Israel inadvertently helped calls for the return of Syria to Lebanese politics. Furthermore, the rise of Hezbollah's influence in the region makes it even more difficult and unattractive for Syria to break ranks with Iran, a condition which Israel has demanded as part of the peace talks.

The invasion of Iraq showed that application of military power can bring limited political gains. The entrance of the United Sates into negotiations with Iran will enable the U.S. to augment its military presence in the region, in order to pressure Tehran.

As strong as Iran may be in the Middle East, it is still susceptible to pressure, as shown recently by the exit of the French oil giant Total from Iran's gas sector.

This was a heavy blow to Ahmadinejad's government.

More sanctions could be on the way if Tehran continues to act belligerently and defy UN calls for the temporary suspension of its enrichment program. Now Tehran no longer has the excuse that America is not interested in negotiations.

It is time to allow the State Department to become involved in arenas where the Department of Defense has no reach because ultimately diplomacy and military might are all forms of the same thing, a means to achieve a desired end.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...
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William said...

Am not sure that it is credible to regard Sheba as in any way part of Syria. It is and always was on the Lebanese side of the summit of Mount Hermon (Jebel Sheikh) that delineates the border between Syria and Lebanon. Iran warned Israel "not to leave a splinter in the wound" with reference to Sheba. It was made clear before the withdrawal of Israel by Hizbollah that failure to leave Sheba would mean continued conflict. Israel decided not to leave this small section of Lebanon and it has cost them dear.