Comments by Jane Kinninmont
Important comments by Nawaif Obaid, security advisor to Prince Turki, arguing that if the US leaves Iraq 'prematurely' the Saudis might consider stepping up their intervention to counter the influence of Iran - possibly including establishing Sunni militias 'to combat the Iranian-backed militias'. (His other suggestion that Saudi might up oil production in order to lower the oil price, thus hurting Iran, seems pretty implausible given that it would hurt all the world's other oil producers including all Saudi Arabia's neighbours)
"Just a few months ago it was unthinkable that President Bush would prematurely withdraw a significant number of American troops from Iraq. But it seems possible today, and therefore the Saudi leadership is preparing to substantially revise its Iraq policy. Options now include providing Sunni military leaders (primarily ex-Baathist members of the former Iraqi officer corps, who make up the backbone of the insurgency) with the same types of assistance -- funding, arms and logistical support -- that Iran has been giving to Shiite armed groups for years.
Another possibility includes the establishment of new Sunni brigades to combat the Iranian-backed militias. Finally, Abdullah may decide to strangle Iranian funding of the militias through oil policy. If Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half, the kingdom could still finance its current spending. But it would be devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today's high prices. The result would be to limit Tehran's ability to continue funneling hundreds of millions each year to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere."
From the Washington Post
In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be "solving one problem and creating five more" if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration.
One hopes he won't make the same mistake again by ignoring the counsel of Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that "since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited." If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis...
To view the full article please click on the link in the title
William commented:
Can the Saudis be serious - or are they just blagging themselves up to bother the West / Iran? Would they actually actively foster and ferment civil war in Iraq? Seems unlikely - but interesting though. Will send it round.
The plot thickens...
"Consultant fired"The Saudi ambassador canceled a contract with a government adviserwho predicted Saudi Arabia might intervene in Iraq to protect the SunniMuslim minority that would be vastly outnumbered by Shi'ite Muslims in afull-scale civil war.Ambassador Prince Turki al-Faisal said Nawaf Obaid was a consultantto the Saudi Embassy until he wrote an article last week in TheWashington Post, claiming that the Saudi government was consideringproviding funding, arms and logistical support to Sunni militias.Prince Turki told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Sunday that he canceled thecontract to distance the government from Mr. Obaid, who is also anadjunct fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic andInternational Studies. Although Mr. Obaid wrote that he was expressinghis personal views, many observers thought he had the approval of theSaudi government to leak the information as a warning to brutal Shi'itemilitias that mount daily attacks against Sunnis and to the Iraniangovernment that funds the militias.Sunnis, who also wage daily war against Shi'ites, ignited the waveof violence by blowing up a revered Shi'ite mosque in February."Mr. Obaid did some consultancy work for the embassy," Prince Turkisaid. "And in order to [show], as he explained in his article, that hewas expressing his views on these issues and to make sure that nobodymisunderstands where Saudi Arabia and the embassy stand on that issue,we terminated our consultancy work with him."Prince Turki insisted that Saudi Arabia is engaged with allfactions in Iraq in an attempt to promote reconciliation and stability.
He also cautioned against a regional conference involving Iraq'sneighbors, including Iran and Syria, another nation fueling Shi'iteterrorism."If there is going to be a conference, it will have to bepredicated on very specific targets," Prince Turki said. "You simply can't just have a conference for the sake of having a conference.
William comments:
Poor Nawaf Obaid, but it was such a stupid thing to say - a catastrophic thing to say in public anyway - of course it could be true, but if so the Saudis could never say so publicly - unless you are machiavellian enough to think that this was a clever Saudi way of saying it without saying it - threatening the West and then pretending we ddidn't mean it by getting the man to fall on his sword . . . even though the reality is everyone knows that ACTUALLY they do mean it . . .
Now there's a conspiracy theory for you !
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