War plans against Iran

The following is a representative exchange from the Gulf 2000 group which is of interest:

COMMENT: I have enormous respect for Graham Fuller, having followed and read much of his work over the years. So I trust he and others will not take umbrage when I point out the obvious, namely: to write, "But my reading and gut-feel this time around is that we will not have a replay of Iraq." is NOT the same as stating that the U.S. will NOT undertake military action against Iran.

There are, unfortunately, various other options available to them shot of an invasion. And to be clear about it no neocon has suggested invading; they have suggested militarily striking. That is a BIG difference.

ORIGINAL STATEMENT: David IsenbergAt 04:34 PM 4/5/2006, Gary G Sick wrote:Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 14:18:57 -0400From: bozorgg@aol.comFrom: Graham E. FullerThose who have written in expressing their concern that there are powerful forces in the administration and in the cheering sections of Congress and the US press to go to war-- or "just" conduct heavy air attacks against Iranian nuclear installations-- are absolutely right. I too worry about them, and the Borg-like logic of their thinking ("all resistance is futile.")

And there are indeed powerful parallels with the run-up to Iraq, as Sharon Burke and others have pointed out. They are disturbing. But nonetheless I have to say I do think the present domestic and global environment is quite different than the run-up to Iraq.

Look, I earn a living analyzing Muslim world affairs, not Washington, so I am not an expert on all of this. And I live 3000 miles away from Washington. But my reading and gut-feel this time around is that we will not have a replay of Iraq. I think "faith-based" foreign policy and the boundless confidence and ideological zeal of the neocons and superhawks have come in for some hard hits over the past three years.

As for 2003, I did in fact believe that the administration would go ahead and invade Iraq at that time-- that took no brains or special insight, nearly everybody saw it coming. But this time, for all the reasons I adduced in my original message and more, I just don't think the hawks can prevail, as much as they desperately want to. The "international correlation of forces" as the Soviets used to say, militate against it.

But I doubt anybody will want to to bet their family fortune on my reading of the scene either... best wishes, Graham E. Fuller